HBO is gaining and Netflix is losing, though Q1 earnings call from the big N were hurt by dropping the Russian market (0.7 million subscribers), so in a way, Netflix gained 0.5 million subscribers from Q4/2021. That is still very far from the optimistic predictions of 2 to 2.5 million subscribers. Disney+ will present its earnings call in May, but even with HBO’s numbers, you can see the potential for growth (and this is before the recent expansion in Europe) with both HBO Max and Disney+.
HBO growth is hampered by mixing numbers from HBO and HBO Max subscriptions and some major markets hurdle as well. In Western Europe, there are several markets where HBO is being carried by a third-party license and that won’t change until 2024/2025. Only then HBO Max can truly expand and catch up. That is what Disney+ is way ahead with 130 million subscriptions currently (and who knows how much it will add in reported Q1/2022).
Another good news for HBO? Their ARPU has increased. What is ARPU? The Average Revenue Per User is currently 11.24 dollars (up from 11.15 in Q3, down from 11.72 in Q1/2021). HBO invested a lot of money into their March 2022 expansion, which is why ARPU is slightly lower (for comparison – Netflix has 11.91) than expected.